Vaca Muerta wells yield less oil per metre as laterals grow longer
The median lateral is 25% longer than in 2020, while first-year oil per well has stayed near 240,000 barrels since 2021. The loss per metre is concentrated in laterals longer than 2,500 metres.
- Oil per metre, 2025 wells
- 80 bblFirst 12 months on line, down 22% from 103 for 2020 wells.
- Median lateral
- 3,019 mUp 25% from 2,409 m for 2020 wells.
- Oil per well
- 241 kbblFirst 12 months, level with 2021 wells at 240 kbbl.
- Wells studied
- 1,543Horizontal Vaca Muerta oil wells first on line from 2016 to mid-2025.
Oil wells brought on line in Vaca Muerta in 2025 produced 22% less oil per metre of lateral in their first year than wells from 2020 and 2021, according to government well and production registers.
The median 2025 well produced 80 barrels per metre of lateral in its first 12 months, down from 103. Its lateral ran 3,019 metres, a quarter longer than in 2020, and was fractured in 50 stages instead of 34.
The longer laterals kept output per well roughly flat. The median 2025 well produced 241,200 barrels in its first year, level with 2021 wells at 240,000 and below the 2022 peak of 248,700. Most of the loss per metre comes from laterals longer than 2,500 metres.
Laterals grow every year while oil per metre falls
Oil per metre rose until 2020, when it peaked at 103 barrels. It has fallen every year since 2021, while laterals grew by 70 to 200 metres a year.
The same blocks produce less oil per metre
To rule out a shift in where wells are drilled, we compared each block with itself: wells first on line from 2019 through 2021 against wells from 2024 and 2025, in the six blocks with at least 10 wells in each period.
Five of the six produced 16% to 29% less per metre. La Amarga Chica, operated by YPF, fell the most, to 75 barrels per metre from 106, although its laterals grew only 11%. Bajada del Palo Oeste, Vista's largest block, fell 26%, Loma Campana 24% and Bandurria Sur 16%.
Shell's Cruz de Lorena moved the other way, rising 40% to 115 barrels per metre on laterals of 3,209 metres. That result rests on 10 recent wells.
Losses concentrate in laterals past 2,500 metres
Among the 1,241 wells first on line from 2019 to mid-2025, length made no difference for those from 2019 through 2021. They produced 100 to 109 barrels per metre at every lateral length.
For wells from 2022 through mid-2025, laterals under 2,000 metres still produced 102 barrels per metre. Output per metre fell with each step up in length, to 96 barrels at 2,000 to 2,500 metres, 85 at 2,500 to 3,000, 82 at 3,000 to 3,500 and 80 beyond.
Longer wells still produce more oil in total. The median 2022-2025 well with a lateral past 3,500 metres produced 298,300 barrels in its first year, compared with 175,900 for laterals under 2,000 metres. The registers do not include drilling costs, so they cannot show whether the extra length pays.
| Lateral | Wells 2019-21 | bbl/m 2019-21 | Wells 2022-25 | bbl/m 2022-25 | First year, kbbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2,000 m | 67 | 104.0 | 72 | 101.8 | 175.9 |
| 2,000 to 2,500 m | 138 | 100.9 | 180 | 95.9 | 217.1 |
| 2,500 to 3,000 m | 107 | 100.4 | 324 | 85.1 | 236.4 |
| 3,000 to 3,500 m | 25 | 108.8 | 218 | 81.5 | 263.1 |
| 3,500 m and over | 2 | Too few wells | 108 | 80.0 | 298.3 |
Gas, crowding and sand do not explain the drop
The wells are moving deeper into the oil window. Their median gas-oil ratio fell to 119 cubic metres of gas per cubic metre of oil for 2025 wells, from 163 for 2020 wells.
Wells drilled near older ones produce more oil per metre than isolated wells. Among 2022-2025 wells whose lateral is traced in the register, those within 400 metres of a lateral that had produced for at least six months produced a median 95 barrels per metre, compared with 84 for wells with no such neighbour. Wells with neighbours tend to sit on the best acreage. Both groups lost output per metre from 2019 through 2021, when they produced 107 and 100 barrels.
Operators did not cut back on sand. Sand per metre rose to 3.90 tonnes for 2025 wells from 3.71 for 2020 wells, and stages moved closer together, to 61 metres apart from 65.
Phoenix, Pampa and Vista lead on oil per metre
Among operators with at least 15 wells first on line from January 2023 to July 2025, Phoenix Global Resources led with 101 barrels per metre, followed by Pampa Energía at 96 and Vista at 94. Vista's wells produced the most oil each, 264,300 barrels in their first year.
YPF brought 451 of the 785 wells on line, and its median well produced 83 barrels per metre. Pan American Energy, at 52, and Tecpetrol, at 58, ranked lowest, on laterals of 3,000 and 3,500 metres.
Time from spud to first oil also varies by operator: 153 days for Vista's median well, 223 days for YPF's and 507 days for Shell's.
| Operator | Wells | Lateral, m | First year, kbbl | bbl per metre | Sand, t/m | Spud to oil, days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Global Resources | 29 | 2,840 | 247.6 | 101.0 | 3.42 | 173 |
| Pampa Energía | 16 | 2,550 | 244.5 | 95.9 | 4.56 | 225 |
| Vista | 110 | 2,857 | 264.3 | 93.5 | 4.24 | 153 |
| YPF | 451 | 2,853 | 228.0 | 82.6 | 3.85 | 223 |
| Shell | 62 | 2,966 | 214.7 | 79.3 | 4.06 | 507 |
| Chevron | 23 | 3,044 | 189.7 | 69.3 | 3.68 | 293 |
| Tecpetrol | 17 | 3,501 | 185.6 | 57.8 | 2.94 | 199 |
| Pan American Energy | 48 | 3,000 | 222.7 | 52.4 | 3.14 | 174 |
Argentina pumps a record 22,219 frac stages
Argentina pumped a record 22,219 frac stages in 2025, up 40% from 2024, using 5.06 million tonnes of sand and 33.1 million cubic metres of water, according to the fracturing register. Imported sand fell to 0.1% of the total from 76% in 2015. Operators declare a frac job months after it ends, so the 2025 total may still rise.
Each barrel now takes more fracturing
The median 2025 well needed 47% more stages than the 2020 well for 11% more oil in its first year. Our production model learns its well curves from recently declared wells, so the drop per metre is already part of the forecast in our analysis of Argentina's path to 1 million barrels a day.
The registers do not show how much of the loss comes from the rock and how much from operators' choices, such as tighter stage spacing or completions designed to cut costs. They do show where it sits: in laterals longer than 2,500 metres, which made up 72% of the wells first on line from 2022 to mid-2025.
Method and data
- The study covers horizontal wells the register classifies as unconventional, declaring the Vaca Muerta formation, mainly producing oil in their first year and with at least 12 months on line by August 2026. A well's year is its first month of production.
- First-year oil is the output of the first 12 months from first production. Oil per metre divides it by the lateral length in the well register, oil per stage by the frac stages declared. All figures are medians, converted at 6.2898 barrels per cubic metre.
- A block is the concession each well declares. Blocks are compared with themselves where each period holds at least 10 wells.
- The crowding test uses the 860 wells whose lateral is traced in the register. A neighbour is another horizontal Vaca Muerta well whose lateral passes within 400 metres and which started producing at least six months earlier.
- The well-by-well chart leaves out wells above 240 barrels per metre or outside 1,000 to 4,200 metres. The medians include them.
- Frac stages, sand and water come from the fracturing register, every formation, by the job's start date.